張競／中華戰略學會資深研究員
過去數日臺灣社會多家媒體，紛紛轉述報導今年6月25日，亦就是美國總統大選首次辯論前兩日，同時也是川普競選活動受到暗殺襲擊前兩周，川普本人在海湖莊園接受美國彭博商業周刊(Bloomberg Businessweek)專訪時，論及其對臺灣所抱持觀感與政策基調。
特別是川普提到臺灣晶片製造業以及美國與臺灣安全關係時，其論述觀點在臺灣媒體報導論述中，被嚴重曲解與簡化成“川普認為臺灣應當向美國繳付「保護費」”，但若是查閱彭博商業周刊網站所刊載下列川普受訪全文記錄稿(https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview-transcript/?embedded-checkout=true)，吾人卻會發現其中並無任何英文字辭，能夠轉譯成中文「保護費」辭彙。筆者特別將媒體所轉述之相關重要論述以粗黑體標註，祈請讀者參考。
| 彭博商業周刊網站以“The Donald Trump Interview Transcript – Full Text, Fact-checked”為題報導，涉及臺灣紀錄內容 |
|
Would you defend Taiwan against China? Look, a couple of things. No. 1, Taiwan. I know the people very well, respect them greatly. They did take about 100% of our chip business【1】. I think, Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China. A slight advantage, and China’s a massive piece of land, they could just bombard it. They don’t even need to—I mean, they can literally just send shells. Now they don’t want to do that because they don’t want to lose all those chip plants. You know, all those plants and they don’t want to do that. But I will tell you, that’s the apple of President Xi’s eye, he was a very good friend of mine until Covid that I really, you know, I was, I didn’t feel the same way. Same thing with Putin. Putin and I got along very well, with our relationship. We were never in danger of a war. He would have never gotten into Ukraine. I said, don’t ever, ever go into Ukraine. The oil prices. It was so crazy. The oil price was so crazy and it was always the apple of his eye. Just like with China. It’s the apple of China’s eye. It was the apple. It’s the apple of his eye. But the day I left they sent 28 bombers right over the top【2】and they’ve been very aggressive ever since, they got ships all over the place. I wouldn’t feel so secure right now, if I was them, but remember this: Taiwan took our chip business from us, I mean, how stupid are we? They took all of our chip business. They’re immensely wealthy. And I don’t think we’re any different from an insurance policy. Why? Why are we doing this? They took almost 100% of our chip industry, I give them credit. That’s because stupid people were running the country. We should have never let that happen. Now we’re giving them billions of dollars to build new chips in our country, and then they’re going to take that too, in other words, they’ll build it but then they’ll bring it back to their country. 【1】Taiwan produces 92% of advanced microchips, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. |
依據川普實際受訪內容，對照臺灣社會媒體報導時廣泛以無中生有之「保護費」，用以描述川普觀點，其實是顯現出臺灣社會嚴重焦慮與虛幻期待。吾人必須認識下列重要事實；首先川普確實提到臺灣應當為其國防支付美方(Taiwan should pay us for defense)，基本上就是證明川普不希望讓臺灣在安全事務上免費搭便車，以不勞而獲方式，得到美國提供安全協助，甚至是由美國對臺灣提供無償軍事援助。
但是將此詮釋成「保護費」，顯然是刻意混淆成臺灣有可能向美國支付經費，以便獲得美國軍力保護；吾人必須牢記，川普並不是說(Taiwan should pay us for protection)，所以認為願意付出代價，就可以獲得美軍提供支援或是協防，甚至由美軍提供保護傘，這就顯然是在大做白日夢。
其次就必須承認，過去數年來兩岸關係日趨緊張，所有官方溝通管道完全中斷，綠營執政僅能乞靈於擴大採購軍備，以飲鴆止渴手法，來面對兩岸衝突危機可能性逐漸升高態勢，但卻對降低敵意化解衝突完全無計可施。因此就變成對美外交只能讓華盛頓予取予求，在多項議題上丟盔卸甲任由美國需索無度，但卻完全無法據理力爭維護權益。
華盛頓察覺到臺灣社會對向美擴大軍備採購無法改變臺海安全困境，軍費支出不斷擴張，但卻在軍備採購作業上，浮現多項拖欠無法交貨狀況，讓鄉親產生嚴重負面觀感，因此才會提出若干象徵性軍事援助，再搭配臺灣永遠無法派上用場之軍事融資額度，以便安撫臺灣社會不滿情緒。
但從川普所表達論述觀察，顯然其本身並不認同對臺提供無償軍援，所以才有“Taiwan should pay us for defense”論述，但若是將此詮釋成川普希望臺灣向美國支付「保護費」，這種說法未免就太過惡質，完全扭曲川普認為臺灣應當自立自強，認真承擔本身國防責任，不要妄想享用免費午餐，輕鬆搭上順風車。對於內心世界希望「倚美謀獨」者來說，其實亦是當場澆下一頭冷水。
臺灣社會總是有許多人對於兩岸發生衝突時，美國必定會派兵援助懷抱高度期待；對於抱持此種觀點者，總是認為兩岸開戰只要能夠獲得美軍救援，不論要付出多高代價，對其來說完全不成問題。但從川普無情地指控臺灣晶片產業係完全掠奪美國，並且認定北京到目前並未對臺動武，就是希望能夠完整攫取臺灣晶片產業，此等戰略觀點與情勢評估可能更加讓人擔憂。
誠然從上述受訪紀錄中，可以看出川普因為新冠疫情，對於習近平確實存在負面觀感，但確實亦可從字裡行間察覺到，川普確實認為在戰略態勢上，軍事防禦臺灣確實相當困難，假若不能體會出川普在受訪時積極暗示，美國恐怕無意亂淌渾水，臺灣必須務實認真承擔起本身軍事防務責任，絕不容許臺北奢望能夠搭上順風車，甚至無償獲得軍事援助都明確反對時，吾人那還能妄想只要「保護費」銀兩給足，就會獲得美軍前來救援，在政治上獲得華盛頓撐腰呢？
最令人擔憂的是綠營外交與國安高層，不乏在美國進修獲得高等教育學位人士，難道就沒有任何謀士智囊，仔細比對川普受訪講話全文，嚴肅指出「保護費」完全是個無中生有空穴來風辭語。閣揆卓榮泰反而是忙不迭地聲稱願意付出更多責任，雞同鴨講莫過於此。民進黨秘書長林右昌亦是滿嘴外交辭令官樣文章，堆疊華麗辭藻，但卻顯然沒人搞清楚川普到底講了些甚麼話，這豈不讓人更加憂心？
